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BUNDESLIGA 1 - 2011/12 - BETTING PREVIEW,ANALYSIS BY 888 SPORT888sport Betting Expert, Ed “The Head” Nicholson gives his insights!
It’s been over 2 months since Borussia Dortmund sealed their 7th league title and St.Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt were unceremoniously dumped out of the top flight. However, it’s the first week in August and as always in Germany, we start all over again for yet another pulsating campaign. If you don’t know who to bet on, how the sides will finish up: Champions, Champions League, Europe, Relegation, then check out the lowdown on each club and what their chances are. Champions League semi-finalists and German Pokal winners, Schalke 04, take first blood for the season, winning the Bundesliga curtain raiser against Champions Borussia Dortmund. Here is the rundown of all the Bundesliga participants for this season, in the order that they finished the last campaign: Borussia Dortmund: Champions Dortmund surprised everyone with the early pace they set last season. Die Borussen are only second favourites at 4/1 to claim back to back titles and will have an added distraction of the Champions League this season, albeit from the group stage onwards. Dortmund have only made a couple of quite large purchases, having recruited Ilkay Gündogan for £3,520,000 from Nuremberg and Ivan Perisic for almost £5m from Club Brugge. However, they have been dented by the loss of one of their star players, Nurin Sahin, who moved to Real Madrid for almost £9m this summer, in fact Dortmund have made money from this summer’s transfer dealing so far. Verdict: Can Dortmund win it again? The answer is that is seems very unlikely with Bayern beefing up their squad, extra demands of the side with top class European competition and losing one of their best players; a top 4 finish and a Champions League spot is the most likely outcome, Dortmund are 3/10 to finish in the top 3. Predicted position: 3rd Bayer Leverkusen: Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, Bayer Leverkusen‘s lack of a title and their 5 2nd place Bundesliga finishes between 1997 to 2011 has led Bayer to becoming known as, “Vizekusen”, a pun in German on being runners’ up. Bayer are 11/1 to win their first league championship this season and 13/8 to finish in the top 3, the latter being a far safer bet. Like Champions Dortmund, Bayer have been active in the transfer window and have ended up with a profit. Bastian Oczipka was plundered for free from relegated FC St. Pauli, whilst Ömer Toprak (SC Freiburg) and André Schürrle (Mainz 05) have come the club for just short of £10m. However, no less than 11 players have left for pastures new, most notable Arturo Nidal to Juventus for £9.2m, 9 of the other 10 going for around a total of £2m with veteran Sami Hyypia hanging up his boots. Can Bayer cope with the transition? Bayer are well worth a punt at 11/10 for a top 4 spot and Champions League football next season. Verdict: I think that history will repeat itself with Bayer being consistent enough to challenge for most of the season but again not having enough to break into the exclusive German club of Champions; a definite top 3 finish. Predicted Position: 2nd Bayern Munich: Usually everyone’s favourite to win the Bundesliga, Bayern are desperate to put the nightmarish previous season under Louis Van Gaal behind them, when the league was relented very early in the season and their challenge for trophies was poor to say the least. Under new coach Jupp Heynckes, Der FCB have almost worn out their chequebook with the spending almost topping the £40m mark with the purchase of Germany’s Player of the Year, Schalke keeper Manuel Neuer, accounting for over half of the total spending. Jerome Boateng has joined from Man City for over £11m with Rafinha (Genoa) and Nils Petersen (Energie Cottbus) having also been acquired for big money. The most notable departures were legendary German goal machine Miroslav Klose for a free transfer and Hamit Altintop who has made a move to Real Madrid, also on a free. Verdict: What does this all mean? The ambition is certainly there and if Heynckes can get the mood in the dressing room right, along with Mario Gomes’ goals, 3/1 to be top scorer, the Bundesliga Shield could well be returning to Bavaria at odds of 8/13. Predicted Position: Champions. Hannover 96: Hannover were the surprise package for last season, there or thereabouts until the final couple of months, a side that hasn’t won the league in 54 years and whose last trophy came in 1992, the German Pokal, as a second division side. Rarely do sides of Hannover’s standing challenge for Champions League places but this is what happened and if the 4 Champions League places that Germany will get for this season’s competition had applied last year, that’s what they would have had. Instead Hannover will have to settle for Europa League football, which could prove to be a distraction in this year’s campaign. Hannover are not afforded the budgets enjoyed by other clubs vying for European places and this is reflected in their summer transfer dealing, only £1.5m worth of purchases and all their 7 departures went for a free going to either unspecified or lower division sides. Die Roten are rank outsiders at 100/1 to land the Bundesliga title. Verdict: It can happen that there is a surprise package for the season that excels itself beyond all expectations, even its own but rarely does that side repeat the feat. I don’t think that Hannover are good enough this year from even a top 6 spot and potentially more European football even though they are 11/2 to achieve it. Predicted Position: 8th Mainz 05: Like Hannover 96 who finished a place above them, Mainz are not accustomed to such a lofty final position, having yo-yoing between the top and second tiers of German football for much of their recent history. A European place could well have a similar affect on the club as it could do on Hannover, being a curse as a distraction rather than to spur the players on to bigger and better things. The main difference between Hannover and Mainz is that Mainz have been very active in the transfer market, spending over £2m on Anthony Ujah (Lillestrom) and the other £8m or so on no less than 11 other players. However, two big departures from the Karnevalsverein were André Schürrle for more than £7m to Bayer Leverkusen and Christian Fuchs to Schalke. A top 6 finish sees them at good value at 9/2 whilst their title aspirations are unrealistic and are accurately priced at 125/1. Verdict: Mainz are a bit better prepared than Hannover this season but they are still going to feel the loss of Schürrle and Fuchs?. A lot will depend upon their start, string a few wins together and they may gain another Europa League spot, a few defeats and it could be a long, hard season. Predicted Position: 7th Nuremberg: Nuremberg have one of the proudest histories in German football history but their fortunes over the last 15 to 20 years have seen them drift between not only the top two divisions in Germany but a regional division in the 1996-7 season. Despite this, Der Club have one of the most loyal sets of supporters in the country who would have enjoyed last season’s top 6 finish despite missing out on Europe as Schalke qualified after taking the German Pokal. Nuremberg’s jaunt into the transfer market this season has been sparse with less than £3m spent and a profit having been made so far. Most players have left the club on a free transfer with only Ilkay Gündogan for £3,520,000 bringing in any money from a sale. The only significant spending was on Tomas Pekhart from FK Jablonec in the Czech Republic for £1,760,000 but the acquisition of Markus Feulner from Borussia Dortmund should add much needed experience to the line up. Nuremberg are good odds for a top 4 finish at 40/1 or top 6 at 25/1. Verdict: Nuremberg have got every chance of improving on their impressive 6th place finish last season and even though they haven’t spent big this summer, they have a good squad and should secure European football this time round. Predicted Position: 5th Kaiserslautern: Every season there is a side that excel themselves and break into the exclusive, small number of sides that are constantly vying for top honours, Kaiserslautern are my surprise pick for the 2011/12 season and are superb value to finish in the top 4 at huge odds of 25/1, following on from their 7th place finish in their return to the top flight last season. The last of Die Roten’s 4 titles came 13 years ago and they haven’t got the resources of a Bayern, Dortmund or Bayer but their rabid home support always gives them an edge at the Fritz-Walter Stadion. Kaiserslautern have been active in the transfer market, snapping up two young Israeli prospects for around £3m from Hapoel Tel Aviv, Itay Schechter and Gil Vermouth. They have acquired a further 6 players, a couple from their youth team and Richard Sukuta-Pasu from Bayer Leverkusen for just under £0.25m, whilst only a handful of players surplus to requirements were allowed to leave. Verdict: 888sport have really played down Kaiserslautern’s chances and whilst 500/1 for the league would be a waste of a punt, betting on a top 6 or top 4 finish at odds of 16/1 and 25/1, respectively, is well worth wager. Predicted Position: 4th Hamburg: If I were to equate Hamburg with an English side, I would say that they were Aston Villa, an old, respected club with a proud history, last won the European Cup in the early ’80s, constantly in the top flight with the ability make a push for the title every so often but not for some time. The only difference is that the German league is tighter and it’s probably harder to stay in the top flight and so Hamburg’s record over the last 10-15 years is a bit more impressive than Villa’s pound for pound. Hamburg were actually looking good for a Champions League spot last season but the tumultuous disharmony caused by star striker Ruud van Nistlerooy who was frustrated after a January move back to the big time with Real Madrid was turned down cost them this and qualification to the Europa League. Van Nistlerooy is gone along with 12 others including Alex Silva who went back to South America and Joris Mathijsen who joined van Nistlerooy at Málaga; most of the others were lost on free transfers after their contracts ran out. Apart from a handful of loan players returning to the club there were a number of acquisitions, mainly from Chelsea’s youth academy and their own youth side. The best value betting is on Hamburg finishing in the top 6 at odds of 5/6. Verdict: I think that this is a season of transition for Hamburg, losing some good players without adequately replacing them, incorporating young players into the side and realigning the harmony of the dressing room; they will struggle a bit. Predicted Position: 9th Freiburg: Freiburg looked good for a European place for most of the season up until February last year when they dropped off and finished well adrift from the group of sites battling ferociously for those European spots for this season. Freiburg haven’t been so active in the transfer market, making only 1 real money acquisition, Garra Dembélé from Levski Sofia for almost £2m; the others coming from Freiburg reserves. Most of the players leaving Breisgau-Brasilianer this season didn’t recoup any money for the club, only Ömer Toprak, a huge loss, went to Bayer Leverkusen for a little over £2.6m. Freiburg are a small club, having spent most of their life outside of the top flight without a major trophy to their name but in their 3rd season in Bundesliga 1. I think that they have some stability and stay up although they are 13/8 to go down. Verdict: A lot of Freiburg’s peers have been spending a lot more than them in the summer and this could well cost them a few places in the league this season compared to last. Predicted Position: 13th Continued Success?: Dortmund players celebrate during one of the many goals scored in their Championship winning season; can they repeat it? Cologne: Cologne are one of the big sides of German football but are very much a sleeping giant, having done very little of note over the last 20-30 years and yo-yoing between the top 2 divisions in Germany over the last 10 years. Last season was a nervous season, flirting with relegation before finishing with mid-table respectability in 10th place. Cologne are both good value to be relegated at 11/2 and a top 6 place at 6/1. Cologne’s 2 big forays into the transfer market saw Mato Jajalo (AC Siena) and Sascha Riether (VfL Wolfsburg) join for just over £1.7m and £1.75m, respectively. Most of the players leaving the club this season were on loan from last season. Verdict: Cologne haven’t got the money to bring in players to improve their situation and so their fate is very uncertain this year. Predicted Position: 14th Hoffenheim: I believe that this much maligned club which many believe are in the top flight without just cause, being catapulted from the regional leagues into the Bundesliga 1. after substantial financial backing from owner Dietmar Hopp has had it’s time in the big time. After finishing 7th and 11th in their first couple of seasons in the highest level of German football, I think that they have run out of steam and ideas. Hoffenheim spent most of last season hovering around mid-table, without really putting any significant run together and I think that this lack of direction could cost them this year. Most of Hoffenheim’s spending this year was on Kaizer Chief’s Knowledge Musona for £1.3m, the rest were acquisitions from weaker sides but they only lost a handful of players, all for free. Verdict: Hoffenheim are one of my 2 picks to go down this year and they are 12/1 to do just that. Predicted Position 17th Stuttgart: This is one of the most consistent and oldest sides in Germany, having spent the last 34 years in Bundesliga 1. and were last Champions in 2007 but their near miss with relegation last season was a real warning sign; which direction is this great club going in? Stuttgart have lost a key player in this long transfer window, Christian Träsch to ambitiousVfL Wolfsburg for almost £8m. However, Die Schwaben have spent money to strengthen their squad, most notably bring in Tamás Hajnal (Bor. Dortmund) for just under £0.9, William Kvist (Copenhagen) for just over £3m and Maza (PSV) for just shy of £1.6m Verdict: I think that Stuttgart will not struggle as they did last season but they won’t have enough to break into the top half of the table, a solid campaign this year may open the door for next, they could be worth a top 6 bet at evens or to a lesser extent a relegation punt at 40/1. Predicted Position 12th Werder Bremen: Die Werderaner were another of those clubs that had no right being so low in the table last season as they are one of the most consistent sides over the last 10 years, finishing in the top 3, an outstanding 6 times and in the top half of the table 8 times, the other 1 apart from last season, firmly in mid-table. A finish of 13th place was very much out character and only because of his amazing record and the board’s faith in him did coach of 12 years, Thomas Schaaf, keep his job. Schaaf was given good money to spend over the summer, acquiring Mehmet Ekici (Bayern Munich) for nearly £4.5m, Andreas Wolf (1.FC Nuremberg) on a free and Lukas Schmitz (Schalke 04) for just short of £0.8m. Bremen had a clearout of no less than 13 of the playing staff. The club is hoping to return to its form, maybe a 33/1 price for the title is justified and an unrealistic bet but 4/1 for top 3, 11/4 for top 4 and 10/11 for top 6 finishes are far more likely. Verdict: I think that Bremen will have something to prove this season and will reward their 6th place odds of 10/11 but their start will be crucial to their final outcome. As an outside bet, if they replicate last season’s poor performances, they are odds of 33/1 for the drop! Predicted Position 6th Schalke 04: Despite an abysmal league record last season, Schalke were strong in the knockout tournaments, reaching the semi-final of the Champions League for the first time in their history before being soundly beaten by Manchester United and winning the German Pokal against Bundesliga 2. side, Duisburg. This was very strange as Schalke have been runners up in 4 of the last 10 seasons. However, Die Königsblauen begin the season without German footballer of the year, Manuel Neuer, who completed his £19.3m move over the summer along with 11 other members of the squad; this could hurt them for this season. The main import was Mainz’s Christian Fuchs for more than £3.3m but apart from him and Marco Höger (Alem. Aachen) for £1.3m, they were free. If they can somehow pull it together they could be good for a top 6 spot at 8/11 and 888sport have them as 4th favourites for the title at a crazy 14/1, not advisable. Verdict: Schalke have an impressive record in the Bundesliga but the loss of Neuer will be tough for them, he was a big reason for their Pokal win last year. Die Knappen have Raul who is 14/1 to be top Bundesliga goal scorer and will be buoyed with their Super Cup win against Dortmund last weekend but it could well be a false dawn; they are a massive 80/1 to be relegated. Predicted Position 11th Wolfsburg: Only the return of a Wolfsburg coaching legend, Felix Magath, did Die Wölfe manage to beat the drop last year on the final day. Wolfsburg’s only major trophy came under Magath in 2009 with the shock Bundesliga title triumph. Magath’s return has prompted 888sport to price Wolfsburg for the title at 25/1. Despite one of biggest spending sprees in Germany this summer, I feel that the old adage, “never go back”, could come back to haunt Magath and the club. With over £14.5m spent and 11 new arrivals, I cannot see this being more than a season of transition for Wolfsburg and in that respect it’s hard to see how it will go; they could gain a top 6 place at odds of 5/6 or could even be relegated at 50/1. Almost £8m of Magath’s spending was on Christian Träsch from VfB Stuttgart and so he will be under a lot of pressure to deliver straight away. Verdict: Wolfsburg’s board and fans certainly believe in Magath and he has a proven track record with the club but there are far too many examples of failures when a coach returns to a club that he once had success at. Predicted Position 10th Borussia Monchengladbach: Monchengladbach seem to be making a habit of escaping from impossible relegation threatening positions, only to survive on the final day and then go onto stay in the top flight via a play off. This has been the situation for Die Fohlen for the last 2 seasons and with less than a meagre £2m spent on new players to try to avoid this situation happening again, I can see this pattern continuing. Borussia have brought in 9 new players, none of them big names and have seen 11 players leave the club, I really can’t believe the lack of investment for this big, old club and I worry about it staying up this season, they are 5/2 for the drop. Verdict: I can fully see Borussia Monchengladbach struggling all season as they have done over the last couple of years but what they lack in quality they make up for in character, grit and determination, they will battle right to the end. Predicted Position 16th Hertha Berlin: Hertha are back in the top tier of German football after a break of just one season and were promoted as Champions of Bundesliga II by some margin. Hertha has been in Bundesliga 1. for 12 straight seasons before their surprise relegation in 2010 and will be looking to stay up on the back of their Championship winning success. Hertha might be known as “Die Alte Dame”, the Old Lady, which is also Juventus’ nickname but that’s were the resemblance ends, especially in the spending department, Hertha spent a little over £0.6m in preseason on new players. However, a lot of their new recruits came on a free and from big clubs like Bayern, Werder Bremen and Hamburg, the Berliners have been very savvy in the transfer department. Verdict: Hertha could well struggle but not as badly as their promoted counterparts, Augsburg, or other vulnerable Bundesliga sides, their clever business dealings in the transfer market could help them immensely. However, Hertha are 7/1 for the drop, one of the favourites. Predicted Position 15th Augsburg: One of the smallest clubs to have ever reached the top flight of German football, Augsburg were in the German regional 4th division just 9 years ago; it’s been some ascendancy. Augsburg were promoted on the last day, beating off Bochum’s challenge on goal difference to claim the second automatic place. Augsburg are the most ill-prepared side in the division having spent less than £0.25m on new players and the favourites to go down at 5/6. Verdict: It’s sad to say but it’s hard to see Augsburg’s inexperienced squad keep up with the big boys and I think that there will be only one outcome for them this season, I only hope for their sake that it’s not too humiliating. Predicted Position: 18th *These predictions are opinions only and are not be taken literally and odds are subject to fluctuation - latest on site at 888 Sport
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