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THE PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL - AN ANALYSIS

by James Pacheco of Betfair

Great League, even better betting opportunities

It’s no surprise that every year the Premier League Winner market proves to be just about the most popular football market on Betfair.

After all, the English top flight is the most exciting in the world, boasting some of the hottest talents in the game and captivating fans with its fast, attacking football.

It also makes for a good betting platform. True, since the creation of the Premier League in 1992 there have been only four winners: Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Blackburn Rovers. However, there is a genuine belief at the start of every season that each of the Big Four are in genuine contention to win the title. The betting certainly backs this up with all trading lower than 10.0 – remember, close contests always make for good betting opportunities. Better still, Premier League campaigns have, in recent years, had quite a few twists to them and most have only been decided on the last couple of days of the season, meaning the “traders” have had plenty of opportunities to lock in profits.

Of course, tying up your money for 10 months until the market is settled isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and some prefer to bet on individual matches and collect after 90 minutes. But as far as long-term market betting goes, this is a good one.

The 2009/10 winner market

The usual suspects dominate the market with Manchester United - bidding for a fourth consecutive title - at the top of the market at odds of 3.1. Sir Alex Ferguson knows what it takes to win this competition and has mastered the art of putting together an irresistible championship winning run, often from around Christmas through to the end of the season. With money to spend on new players every summer, United remain the team to beat.

Chelsea come next at 3.55. The Blues are no strangers to winning Premier League titles, having won back-to-back titles as recently as 2004-5 and 2005-6 under Jose Mourinho. Their squad looks as strong as ever and new boss Carlo Ancelotti has no shortage of transfers funds but how the Italian adapts to the Premier League remains to be seen. Just look at Luiz Felipe Scolari.

Why Liverpool are yet to win a league title since the start of the Premier League is a mystery given the quality of players and managers that have been through the door, their levels of support and success in other competitions. They’re 4.2 to break their duck this season so the layers clearly aren’t taking too many chances.

Doubts continue about Arsene Wenger’s transfer policy but suffice to say that at the moment it’s not working with Arsenal’s last league championship coming back in 2004. The Gunners are the title outsiders of the Big Four at 9.8.

This may be one season too soon for the richest club in football but if anyone is going to break into the big four it’s Manchester City. Craig Bellamy, Robinho, Roque Santa Cruz, Wayne Bridge and Shay Given are just a few of the big names to have joined since the start of last season and the spending is unlikely to stop. If Mark Hughes can get the new players to gel as a team those odds of 23.0 may look generous at some stage of the season.

The Ronaldo Factor

Betfair's Premier League winner market reacted immediately to Cristiano Ronaldo’s £80 million transfer from Manchester United to Real Madrid. Hovering around the 2.6 mark prior to the news, United drifted to a market high of 3.25 with all their rivals’ prices coming in a few ticks. Does one player’s exit really justify moving a whole market in such a dramatic way? Only time will tell but the key to the 2009-10 season may well be the quality of players Fergie brings in to replace the prolific number seven.

Top Tip

If you think Man Utd will win a fourth consecutive title, it may pay to bide your time before backing them. Over the last couple of seasons they have been slow starters, taking just two points from their first three matches of the 2007-8 season and just five points from their first four matches last season. Wait a few weeks before backing them or better still, lay them at the off and re-back them a few weeks into the season at a bigger price for a nice green book.