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BASKETBALL - AN
INTRODUCTION AND BETTING TACTICS
An article from Betfair for Easy Play Games.
Basketball
is one of the fastest-growing sports on Betfair, and
it’s easy to see why. With all NBA, Euro League and
ULEB Cup now offered in-play, as well as various domestic
leagues covered across Europe, it provides a multitude of
betting opportunities.
Whether you consider yourself a
beginner, intermediate or expert we have some advice that
will hopefully prove useful.
Of course the best
way to learn the game properly is by watching as much
basketball as possible. There is plenty of action shown
live on TV around the globe, or on the internet via live
streaming.
Get to know the
difference between an offensive and defensive foul, how
teams manage the shot clock (24 secs, or 35 secs for
Men’s NCAA), and when teams are likely to commit
deliberate fouls at the end of a game (usually because
they do not have enough time for another possession after
the current shot clock).
Joining a fantasy
league can be a great way to learn the players as it
gives you a reason to dissect the box scores each day.
Making
It Pay
There are several
factors that have a significant effect on prices for
basketball matches:
Team news.
This is particularly important in basketball, as
there are so few players on the court at any one
time. Take the Miami Heat for example –
reigning champions of the NBA yet they currently
lie outside the playoff places due to their two
star players, Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane
Wade being injured for large parts of this
season. Sometimes a key player can be ruled out
ten minutes before a match, meaning a shift of
4-5 points in the handicap line.
Home
advantage. Around 60% of games are won by the
home team, so you can expect them to be around
1.66 if the two teams are of similar ability.
Schedule.
A team playing two nights in a row will often
perform below par the second night as their
players are tired. This has more effect away from
home with the added onus of travelling between
venues, and especially if the team has been on a
five or six game road-trip.
“Name
teams” can often be overbet, meaning it can
pay to lay them, or back their opponents. For
example the LA Lakers in the NBA are still
considered one of the best teams by many even
though they’ve been fairly average since
Shaq left in August 2005. In the Euro League,
teams from countries with a lot of punters (e.g.
Greece, Italy) will often be overbet against
teams from, say, Poland or Lithuania.
IP
Betting
Don’t
overreact. Top teams can often pull back
seemingly large deficits fairly quickly, so if
they go ten points down early in the match
it’s not the end of the world.
Watch out
for key players being rested. No one can play all
48 minutes of a match, so the coach will normally
use a rotation of eight or nine players. If Kobe
Bryant sits out the first four minutes of the
second quarter, his team will be at their weakest
during this time.
Remember
that overtime is included in the result of all
markets, unless otherwise stated. So a team that
is two points up with one second to play might
not necessarily be safe on the +4.5pt handicap,
as they could lose by five points or more after
overtime. The same principle applies to Total
Match Points.
If you are
betting off a scoreboard, bear in mind that you
may well be betting against someone with live
pictures. So it might not be a good idea to leave
a big order on screen in the last few seconds of
the game when it could be wiped as the go-ahead
basket goes in.
Watch out
for injuries during the game. If Lebron James
leaves the game in the first few minutes,
it’s safe to say that Cleveland will be a
far weaker team than the pre-game prices suggest!
Remember
there will normally be deliberate fouls at the
end of the game if it is close. This can mean a
late flurry of points to take the Total Points
over. Also don’t assume a team has won just
because they are four pts up with less than 24
seconds to play. As long as there is plenty of
time on the clock, anything can happen.
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